SA-Zim loan saga: US government involved

By Caesar Zvayi

THE issue of the proposed US$1 billion loan from South Africa to Zimbabwe has taken a new twist amid revelations that the United States government approached South African President Thabo Mbeki to bail out Zimbabwe.

A highly-placed Western diplomat in South Africa, who is closely following the deal, told The Herald that International Monetary Fund (IMF) deputy managing director Ms Anne O. Krueger approached President Mbeki and asked him to advance financial support to Zimbabwe ahead of the IMF summit set for next month.

The diplomat said Ms Krueger made her move in the run-up to the African Union summit in Sirte, Libya, which was held from July 4 to 6.

Ms Krueger is reported to have told President Mbeki that a South African loan would enable Harare to pay its dues to the IMF and, in so doing, strengthen the case against Zimbabwe's expulsion from the institution.

President Mbeki, the source said, was surprised that a high-ranking American from President George W. Bush's Republican Party and who sits on the IMF board on behalf of Washington, could make a case for Zimbabwe.

The source said President Mbeki — who is fully aware that the US government passed the so-called Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act that influenced the cutting of Zimbabwe's lines of credit from such multilateral organisations as the IMF — found it baffling that the US government was now against Zimbabwe's expulsion.

However, Ms Krueger is reported to have pointed out that South Africa would lose more from Zimbabwe's expulsion since no other country would want to assist Zimbabwe after that, and this would have a negative effect on the South African economy.

President Mbeki reportedly told her that he would consult with his Finance Minister, Mr Trevor Manuel, and central bank governor Mr Tito Mboweni, who both agreed to assist Zimbabwe.

The Western diplomat said the loan idea was not difficult to sell because Zimbabwe is South Africa's biggest trading partner in Africa.

Zimbabwe currently imports US$1 billion worth of goods against US$600 million worth of exports, thus the balance of trade is clearly in favour of South Africa.

The diplomat added: "The fact that the US government, through (Ms) Krueger, is making secret moves to help Zimbabwe while publicly extending economic sanctions after tabling a new sanctions Bill to condemn Operation Murambatsvina seems to be contradictory, but it is not.

"This is because there was vigorous debate in the US Congress where it was agreed that the US should give President Mugabe a tantalising offer that he could not refuse. It was, however, felt that an offer from Washington would be received with suspicion — that's why the idea of approaching President Mbeki was mooted."

The source said the grand plan was that in the event that President Mugabe refused a conditional loan, he would sow seeds of division in his own party and, in so doing, pave the way for the MDC or the proposed Third Force.

The diplomat said the debate in the US Congress also culminated in the passage of a resolution against Operation Murambatsvina on August 3.

The resolution has since been compiled into another draft sanctions Bill modelled along the so-called Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act that was passed in 2001.

The sanctions Bill claims that the clean-up targeted homes, businesses, and religious structures, including mosques and HIV/Aids orphanages.

The diplomat said reference to the mosques was an attempt to stir up anti-Zimbabwe sentiments in the predominantly Arab Moslem community.

This, he said, is aimed at sabotaging Zimbabwe's successful Look East Policy.

The source said the US wanted to use the rescue package whose only condition would appear to be dialogue with the MDC, but whose real intention would be to start the process of President Mugabe's exit.

It is, thus, not a coincidence that the US Treasury extended Executive Order 13288 which spread US sanctions to cover 26 Zimbabwean commercial entities on the same day that the American Congress passed the draft Sanctions Bill Number 2.

The source said this was designed to ensure that President Mugabe would accept the conditional package at all costs, as the extended sanctions would paint a picture of increasing siege.

Both British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President Bush made President Mbeki their point man on Zimbabwe, but to date they have been disappointed with his policy of quiet diplomacy in which he insists that only Zimbabweans can solve their own problems.

The diplomat said that Mr Bush and Mr Blair want President Mbeki to advance the loan to Zimbabwe not because they do not want the country to collapse, but because they hope to influence President Mbeki to drop the hands-off stance on Zimbabwe.

'"The plan is that once Mbeki advances the loan, he would no longer be an aloof observer of developments in Zimbabwe because, just like any investor, he would want to ensure that the socio-political environment in Harare is conducive for the security of the investment he would have made.

"They feel that this would force him to drop quiet diplomacy for active involvement in Zimbabwe's affairs."

The diplomat added that though President Mbeki has good intentions in advancing the loan, it is the political manoeuvres in Washington and London that are worrying.

Ever since news of the loan broke out, the South African and Western media have been abuzz with speculation that South Africa would attach political conditions to the loan.

There have also been increasing calls for inter-party dialogue from MDC leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai, who is said to be privy to the clandestine US move.

The Western and South African media also alleged that the South African loan would be released on condition that inter-party dialogue take place in Zimbabwe.

However, South African Ambassador to Zimbabwe Professor Mlungisi Makhalima recently told journalists that South Africa has not set any political conditions on the loan.

The new revelation validates the Government's assertion that Harare never begged Tshwane for the loan, contrary to Western media reports.

http://www.zimbabweherald.com/index.php?id=46089&pubdate=2005-08-17