Differences of opinion make for healthy and interesting debate.

I respect anyones right to have a different opinion even if I often fail to understand why they hold such an opinion.

I have also had to change my position in the past when I used to debate on the Ghanaforum and have changed others positions via debate there as well.

We share common ground regarding Mugabe as he systematically destroys Zimbabwe. There have been many bad leaders throughout history but I do believe he holds the lead regarding how fast he has managed to destroy a civil society starting with the destruction of commercial agriculture its taken a mere five years, a new world record I do believe.

I have followed with interest his every move, just when I think he has gone as low as he can he comes out with another more destructive policy.

The man has lost his mind in my opinion, whats surprising to me is that at this late obvious end stage he still finds support from some people, how blind can one be.

I hope you have read my link which I posted in the past:http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:M-PAYG8gE9QJ:www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0001190/P1320-property_rights_Zimbabwe_Richardson.pdf+Craig+Richardson+property+rights+zimbabwe&hl=en

Here is another posting which I just came across
The Future of Agriculture.

When Zimbabwe gained its independence from Britain in 1980 we inherited an
agricultural system which was not only capable of feeding the country but
was also able to do so at prices that were significantly below those of all
our neighboring States. The system generated half our exports, 25 per cent
of GDP and a third of all employment.

The system was then made up of 6 000 large scale farmers - 1200 of them
companies, some with multinational connections, some 800 000 peasant farmers
and 23 000 small scale commercial farmers. The peasant farming sector
generated about half the basic food needs of the country and 70 per cent of
the cotton. The small-scale farmers had the highest average incomes per
capita in the rural sector and the large-scale farmers had a well deserved
reputation for conservation, productivity and quality.

At that time the country was the largest producer and exporter of tobacco,
cotton, beef and white maize in Africa. We also exported sugar, coffee,
timber, tea and a number of other products. Protected initially by the
Lancaster House constitution, the farming industry boomed for the first
decade after independence. Average growth per annum over this time was over
10 per cent per annum and it made a significant contribution to national
growth and output. By 1985 the tobacco industry had recovered from the years
of sanctions and was number three in the world behind the USA and Brazil.

The land redistribution programme also made steady progress during this
time - some 3,6 million hectares of land was purchased under willing seller
willing buyer arrangements and settled by a significant number of otherwise
landless people. By 1995 commercial farmers occupied 12 million hectares of
land, of which only 8 million was actually owned and occupied by white
farmers. 1200 black large-scale commercial farmers had entered the industry
successfully.

Today the whole system lies in ruins - some 600 large-scale commercial
farmers remain, but their possession is tenuous and insecure. A number of
foreign owned farming enterprises - some of them very large - continue to
function. But by and large the whole system has collapsed. Food prices are
now well above regional averages and the system can barely produce a third
to half of what the country needs to feed itself.

The network of research stations, manufacturing and distribution companies
that provided inputs and services to the industry have almost all gone.
Fertilizer, seed and chemicals are difficult to find and even more expensive
to buy. Fuel is a constant nightmare and the electricity grid in rural areas
is in a very poor state.

A feature of this collapse that is often overlooked is that the peasant
sector has shown a similar pattern of collapse to that of the large-scale
commercial farming sector. This is despite the fact that it has not been
affected by the same dislocation as the latter. The reasons for this are
many - HIV/Aids, the migration of adults to the cities and neighboring
States and the affect of the deterioration in input supply and other
services. The dislocation of marketing systems and the rise of corruption in
all dealings with farmers has exacerbated the situation. So Zimbabwe now
faces a situation where not only it cannot feed its cities, the peasant
sector is also now a net imported of food.

What is the outlook? I am afraid the outlook is very gloomy. I am told that
when the State President was given the first estimate of winter cropping he
was extremely angry, as plantings are so small. But it is not just that -
much of the winter crop has been planted late - I saw one farmer trying to
plant wheat last week, a full month too late. In addition, shortages of
herbicides and fertilizers will reduce yields. I am also told that tobacco
seed sales - the first indication of next years crop, are half what they
were at this time last year.

Agriculture is not kind to those who abuse her cycles. Tobacco land
preparation should be completed in April, seedbeds in May, other dry land
cropping areas should be prepared no later than July. Early tobacco goes in
shortly - irrigated and reaping can start as early as November. Wheat must
be planted by the 20th of May. Maize must go in before the 15th of November.

Any disruption of these cycles means lower yields and production and reaping
problems. To achieve them a complex and wide array of resources must be made
available and on time - financing, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, seed and
equipment must be maintained in the off season so that it is available
during the season. The managers who made all this possible are gone - driven
out of the country by the land invasions, political and economic uncertainty
or just concern about the future of families. It is not something you can
put together again in a short period of time. Some might say it can never be
put back together again.

One thing is absolutely sure, without a stable political and economic
environment, without security of tenure and security of assets, no recovery
is likely. On the contrary, under present conditions the situation can only
get worse. The State continues to dispossess farmers - tobacco farmers are
being forced off their properties with cured crops in their barns. Dairy
farmers are still being harassed and the tiny pockets of remaining expertise
and genetic stocks are being threatened or wiped out by illegal invasions on
the part of politically connected thugs.

The Murambatsvina campaign may be partly designed to force people out of the
towns and into the rural areas to "grow food" but this is unlikely to
happen. Conditions in rural areas are desperate and it is much more likely
that the economically active adults will simply seek greener pastures across
the Limpopo or chose to sit it out in even more squalid camps and other
informal settlements.

Even after the coming political transition, the reconstruction of the rural
economy is going to take many years and will require very careful planning
and implementation. It is unlikely that subsistence peasant style
agriculture will ever be able to feed the nation or replace lost exports.
More than likely Zimbabwe will have to painfully reconstruct its large-scale
commercial farming industry piece by piece. That will require, contrary to
present wisdom, security of tenure underwritten by a new constitution and a
firm undertaking by new leaders that the madness of the recent past will
never be allowed to happen again.

Another factor that must be borne in mind is that any future development in
terms of global warming will make both South Africa and Zimbabwe drier and
the weather unstable. This will make it even more important to re-establish
a sophisticated and well-managed large scale farming industry than before.
This could then be used to foster small-scale commercial agriculture and a
transformation of the peasant sector so that Zimbabwe can regain its
position as a leader on the continent in all things to do with farming.

Eddie Cross

Bulawayo, 27th June 2005

Allan.